An updated estimate puts a Senate Republican-aligned super PAC’s Texas television reservation at $51.3 million, up from the roughly $32 million first reported Friday.
The commitment sharply escalates the national GOP outside-spending campaign supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas) and opposing state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) in the U.S. Senate race.
An initial report based on AdImpact data put Texas PAC’s Sept. 11 broadcast buy at about $32 million in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio and Austin. An updated account published at 2:20 p.m. Central Saturday raised the estimate to $51.3 million.
The estimate tracks reserved advertising. It does not reflect an FEC-reported expenditure or prove Texas PAC has paid the full amount or that stations have aired every reserved spot.
News reports have described Texas PAC as linked to Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota). Fox News reported that Senate Leadership Fund launched the group.
Texas PAC’s Aug. 28 federal registration lists “NONE” under the form’s connected-organization and affiliated-committee section. It identifies Texas PAC as an independent-expenditure-only committee and names Cabell Hobbs as treasurer.
A review by The Dallas Express of FCC public inspection files found Texas PAC orders posted under 31 station call signs serving at least 12 Texas-facing television markets.
The Dallas Express excluded duplicate postings and counted 60 distinct order or contract identifiers totaling about $23.7 million in gross scheduled station charges through Sept. 29.
That $23.7 million is a documented floor, not an independent measure of the entire reservation or an amount already spent. The reviewed contracts cover only an initial flight, and the snapshot cannot capture orders not yet posted or other inventory.
The orders also may use a different gross-or-net accounting basis from AdImpact. The records appeared in Dallas-Fort Worth; Houston; Austin; San Antonio; El Paso; Lubbock; Waco-Temple-Bryan; Tyler-Longview and Lufkin-Nacogdoches; Beaumont-Port Arthur; Abilene-Sweetwater; San Angelo; and Shreveport-Texarkana.
Orders establish commitments, not paid invoices
The station materials were posted Sept. 11 and primarily consist of contracts or orders. They identify FlexPoint Media as the media agency. Reviewed order headers use estimate numbers 9506 and 9507 and list flight windows beginning Sept. 9 or Sept. 12 and ending Sept. 28 or Sept. 29.
Some station schedules begin later. DX found no separate creative or production vendor in the reviewed files.
The reviewed files do not provide a statewide set of paid invoices or affidavits confirming delivery, so The Dallas Express could not verify how much Texas PAC had paid. The $51.3 million figure represents an estimated reservation or commitment, not completed cash spending.
The updated AdImpact report said two Texas PAC ads began airing Saturday. That confirms dissemination had begun but does not establish how much Texas PAC had paid.
Reports put the commitment at $43 million and $51.3 million
The Associated Press separately reported that Senate Leadership Fund contributed about $43 million Friday. Many reviewed station contracts list a 15% agency commission and show both gross and net totals.
Deducting 15% from $51.3 million produces $43.6 million, close to the AP figure. Different gross-versus-net conventions could explain the gap, but that is an inference. The reports may instead measure different scopes, and neither published a common methodology.
FEC disclosure has not landed
FEC rules count contracts obligating funds when a PAC aggregates independent expenditures for reporting thresholds. Because the Nov. 3 election was more than 20 days away, the 48-hour regime applied and the FEC’s 24-hour rules had not yet taken effect.
A 48-hour filing is due after public dissemination once independent expenditures for a race reach $10,000. A check of the FEC’s live feed and Texas PAC’s committee filings at 6:42 p.m. Central on Sept. 12 found no Form 24 from Texas PAC.
That absence does not establish a late report. The deadline turns on public dissemination, and the ads were reported to have started Saturday. Any required filing should identify the payee, amount, dissemination date, payment date if known, purpose, and candidate supported or opposed.
One ad supports Paxton and one attacks Talarico
The updated AdImpact-based report said one newly airing ad was positive for Paxton and another was negative against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), the Democratic nominee.
AdImpact identifies the spot titles as “Traffickers,” and “For They Them,” respectively. KETK traffic sheets use the internal title “I-35” under estimate 9506. A separate sheet uses “Protect Your Kids” under estimate 9507.
No FEC report yet divides the reservation between ads supporting Paxton and ads opposing Talarico, so the full $51.3 million should not be assigned entirely to either category.
Three national GOP interventions total about $63.9 million
The new reservation follows the two interventions previously covered by The Dallas Express.
MAGA Inc. disclosed $10 million, split evenly between independent expenditures supporting Paxton and opposing Talarico, with Del Ray Media as the vendor. America PAC has now reported $2,633,625.68 in the Texas Senate race: $512,287.53 supporting Paxton and $2,121,338.15 opposing Talarico.
Adding the latest $51.3 million Texas PAC reservation estimate to those two FEC-reported totals produces a nominal figure of about $63.9 million.
The components are not like-for-like. The $51.3 million estimate measures Texas PAC’s media reservations.
By contrast, MAGA Inc. and America PAC reported independent expenditures covering several forms of voter contact to the FEC.
Campaign and super PAC dollar totals are not directly comparable in airtime. Under FCC rules, legally qualified candidates are entitled to a station’s lowest unit charge during the 60 days before a general election.
Independent groups do not receive that protection and may pay more for comparable broadcast time, so dollar totals alone do not measure audience reach.
Texas PAC has said it intends to advertise through Election Day, but the station orders reviewed by The Dallas Express document only the initial schedule through Sept. 29. Thune said Republicans were united in their effort to keep Talarico out of the Senate.
Christyna Thompson, a spokesperson for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, responded, “They should be sweating.” Regardless of the gross-or-net accounting basis, Texas PAC’s commitment is the largest single national Republican outside intervention that The Dallas Express has tracked in the race.
Provided by Dallas Express
