U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) cast fresh doubt in comments reported Wednesday on former primary rival state Rep. James Talarico (D-District 50) and his chances of turning Texas blue, saying she does not trust favorable public polls and will instead watch whether national party organizations put money behind the race.
NBC News senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur asked Crockett Tuesday night in St. Louis whether Talarico could defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in November’s U.S. Senate election.
“I don’t know,” Crockett said, according to Kapur.
“She doesn’t buy the polls, saying they’ve historically overstated Democrats’ prospects in Texas. ‘I watch money,’” Kapur wrote on X.
“When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I’ll be convinced. But right now, national Republicans decided they wanted to dump money into North Carolina, as well as Georgia,” Crockett said.
She added that national Democrats have not committed money to Texas either.
“I look at: where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand? Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing. So it looks like status quo,” Crockett said, referring to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Public polls show a close race
Recent public polling has shown Talarico narrowly ahead of Paxton, though each advantage remains within the survey’s margin of error.
A Fox News poll conducted July 23-27 placed Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 48% among 1,006 registered voters. A Texas Southern University survey conducted July 27-30 put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters.
Prediction markets remained more skeptical of Talarico’s polling advantage Thursday morning. As of 11 a.m., Polymarket priced Paxton at 52% and Talarico at 50%, while Kalshi displayed Paxton at 51% and Talarico at 49%. Both markets update continuously.
The Cook Political Report rates the race “Lean Republican.” Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988.
Crockett’s focus on national committee spending does not mean Talarico lacks campaign cash. Federal Election Commission records through June 30 show Talarico’s principal campaign committee raised $68.6 million and held $21.5 million in cash. Paxton’s principal committee raised $9.2 million and held about $1.8 million.
Provided by Dallas Express
