The 2026-2027 flu surveillance season began October 4 with Texas heading into it on rising influenza positivity and falling reported COVID-19 case counts. The Texas Department of State Health Services Week 39 report covers September 27 through October 3 and was produced October 9.
Texas hospital laboratories found influenza in 4.47% of specimens during the week ending October 3, up from 3.65% the previous week. During the same reporting period, Texas logged 1,528 confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases, down 32.9% from 2,278 the week before. DSHS notes that, since March 8, 2024, individual confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases are reported voluntarily rather than under a mandatory reporting requirement, so the totals do not represent a complete census of infections.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention starts its new influenza surveillance season with epidemiologic Week 40, which began October 4 this year. The CDC Week 39 FluView update found national flu activity increasing but still low. Influenza A accounted for 97% of positive specimens in clinical laboratories, and A(H1N1)pdm09 was the most frequently reported subtype among public health laboratories, although CDC said subtype distribution varied by region.
Texas data show a similar early-season tilt toward influenza A but remain too limited for a firm statewide subtype conclusion. Of 202 positive specimens reported by Texas hospital laboratories in Week 39, 192 were influenza A. Only 33 of those influenza A specimens were subtyped, and all 33 were H1N1.
What North Texas Is Seeing
DSHS Public Health Region 2/3 covers North Central Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. State officials could not classify the region’s overall flu trend as increasing or decreasing in the final week before the new season began. Four other Texas regions reported increased flu or influenza-like illness activity.
North Texas nevertheless recorded two influenza or influenza-like illness outbreaks during that week, one in a school and one in a health care facility. DSHS identifies Region 2/3 as a 49-county area with nearly 8 million residents.
The available public data do not support a precise current comparison between Dallas-Fort Worth and every other Texas metro area. Dallas County’s public influenza page currently lists 2026 weekly reports only through April 25, while Tarrant County’s respiratory surveillance page lists Week 39 ending October 3 as its most recent posted report. That reporting lag makes statewide and regional surveillance the strongest current measure for an October 15 comparison.
Last winter brought a much different picture. Covered by The Dallas Express in January, Tarrant County flu positivity reached 26.4% in late December while Dallas County also recorded a sharp rise in flu-related hospitalizations. Current October numbers remain far below those winter peaks.
Will This Season Be Worse Or Last Longer?
Scientists do not know yet. CDC’s September outlook notes.
COVID-19 can cause fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath, sore throat, congestion, fatigue, body aches, headache, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and sometimes a new loss of taste or smell. Loss of taste or smell occurs less often than it did earlier in the COVID era. Symptoms alone cannot reliably distinguish flu from COVID-19.
People can also test positive for both infections at the same time.
CDC warns that coinfection can occur, though it is not common, and that a positive flu test does not rule out COVID-19 or vice versa. People with both infections can develop more severe illness than people with either infection alone.
People with flu can spread the virus about one day before symptoms begin and for five to seven days after becoming sick. They tend to be most contagious during the first three days. Young children and people with weakened immune systems can remain contagious longer.
For COVID-19 and other respiratory illnesses, CDC now uses symptom-based guidance rather than a fixed isolation period for the general public. The agency advises people to stay home until symptoms improve overall and they remain fever-free without fever-reducing medication for at least 24 hours. CDC recommends added precautions for the next five days because people may still spread the virus. A positive COVID-19 test tends to mean a person remains more likely to transmit it.
What Happened To COVID Vaccine Mandates?
The mandate landscape has changed substantially from the early COVID years.
Texas law now prohibits private employers from requiring a COVID-19 vaccine as a condition of employment or taking adverse action against workers, contractors or applicants who refuse one.
The law includes limited provisions for reasonable protective policies in health care settings. The Dallas Express previously covered Texas Workforce Commission investigations into alleged violations.
The federal government ended its COVID-19 vaccination requirements for federal employees and federal contractors in May 2023. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services ended its health care staff vaccination requirement that August.
The military rescinded its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in January 2023. President Donald Trump then ordered the military in January 2025 to offer reinstatement to service members discharged solely for refusing the vaccine and to restore rank, back pay and benefits for qualifying returnees.
Are People Still Getting The Shots?
CDC has not yet published a full 2026-2027 uptake picture on its main weekly vaccination trends page. Last season’s national survey data show a large gap between flu and COVID-19 vaccine uptake, but the numbers do not establish why people made those choices.
By February 21, CDC estimated that 17.5% of U.S. adults had received the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 46.5% who had received that season’s flu vaccine. CDC’s final 2025-2026 flu estimate later put adult flu coverage at 41.6% using a different survey system. CDC currently recommends a 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccine for all adults ages 18 and older, while FDA-approved indications vary by age and risk status.
The uptake gap shows that Americans treated the two vaccines differently last season. The available data do not prove whether mandate backlash, safety concerns, perceived personal risk, prior infection, access or other factors drove individual decisions.
What Actually Helps Prevent Infection?
No prevention step is foolproof.
CDC recommends layers of protection: stay away from others when sick, improve indoor air and ventilation, wash or sanitize hands, cover coughs and sneezes, avoid close contact with sick people and consider a well-fitting mask or physical distance when respiratory illness is spreading or when vulnerable people face exposure.
Vaccination remains another available tool for reducing the risk of severe flu and COVID-19. People at higher risk for complications should contact a health care provider promptly after symptoms begin because antiviral medications work best when treatment starts early.
For North Texas, the clearest conclusion as the season begins is not that a major surge has arrived. Flu activity is moving upward, voluntarily reported COVID-19 case counts are moving downward, and public health officials still need several more weeks of data to know what kind of winter the region faces.
Provided by Dallas Express
