Tarrant County Judge Tim O’Hare (R) reported $707,526 cash on hand, more than 10 times the amount available to Precinct 2 Commissioner Alisa Simmons (D), while a live prediction market favored the Republican incumbent in their November contest.
Campaign finance reports filed with Tarrant County list about $67,000 cash on hand for Simmons. The latest comparison shows O’Hare with about $260,000 in total political contributions, compared with $176,000 for Simmons. Those totals include pre-designated funds.
O’Hare’s campaign said the reserve will support direct mail, digital advertising, grassroots organizing, and other voter contact through Election Day.
“Tarrant County voters know our record, and the more they hear about it, the more they support us,” O’Hare said in a campaign statement. “We’re raising the resources we need to finish strong, and we’re not letting up until every voter has heard our message.”
Internal poll shows O’Hare ahead
The campaign also released an internal poll of 400 likely Tarrant County voters conducted June 14-16. The initial ballot test showed O’Hare leading Simmons 40% to 37%, with 23% undecided, according to the campaign.
After respondents received additional information about both candidates, O’Hare’s lead grew to 48% to 31%, with 21% undecided. The campaign said the shift shows O’Hare gains support as voters learn more about his record in office.
Simmons’ campaign has promoted a Change Research survey of 815 likely voters that placed her ahead 44% to 43% on an initial ballot test and 49% to 44% after respondents read candidate biographies. The campaign’s public post did not include the full questionnaire or the wording of those biographies. The competing campaign-backed surveys therefore offer conflicting snapshots rather than independent public polling.
Prediction market favors O’Hare
At 1:36 p.m. Friday, Polymarket listed O’Hare as the leading outcome at 73%, compared with 46% for Simmons. The market had recorded $256 in total trading volume.
Prediction markets do not measure voter opinion directly. They measure what traders expect to happen and can move as participants react to polling, endorsements, campaign news, and turnout expectations. The limited Tarrant County volume makes the market an early signal rather than a definitive forecast, but its direction aligned with O’Hare’s internal poll.
As previously reported by The Dallas Express, Kalshi and Polymarket installed Ken Paxton and Mayes Middleton as heavy favorites before the May Republican runoffs. Both candidates later won their races.
Election Day is November 3. Early voting runs from October 19 through October 30.
Provided by Dallas Express
